What are the chances to get Shipwrecked at Arctic Faun Island?
You go to Captain Charles and ask him for a shortcut, then say yes then he tells you the options: Thais for 100 gold, to Edron for 90 gold, to Liberty Bay for 20 gold, or to Yalahar for 200 gold. There's a random chance that you will get shipwrecked regardless of what city you choose according to Tibia: CM Response. Sometimes you don't get shipwrecked and will arrive exactly at your destination, if this is the case then you can go back to Captain Charles and ask for a shortcut again. It's only when you get shipwrecked that the 20-hour cooldown begins. You can get shipwrecked at 4 different locations, and one of those locations is the Artic Faun Island. It's important to note if you never shipwrecked before there's a 100% chance you'll end up at an island west of the Meluna because of The Secret Library Quest, but after this, I assume a 25% chance, you'll arrive at Arctic Faun Island since there are 4 islands to get shipwrecked which according to Tibia Wiki: Charles is-
- An island west of the Meluna, here, as part of The Secret Library Quest. After using the raft, you get sent to Fibula.
- A small island, part of the Ice Islands, here, where you can find Arctic Fauns. You can leave the island through the Ice Portal, which brings you to Vega, Carlin surroundings or Fibula.
- A small island north of Feyrist, here, where you can face Raxias when going in the teleporter. You get sent to Carlin's temple after using the Energy Shrine there.
- A small island in the middle of the three Laguna Islands, here. You will find a dead human. Use it to gain a shovel. You can use that shovel on a hole next to it. Below, you find a small cave with a seashell and a dead explorer, in which you can find a fishing rod. It is not yet known if these items serve a purpose here somehow. There is some water inside the cave where you can fish. You can leave this island by walking on the turtle, which will bring you back to Meluna.
Most of this information is also seen in this related TibiaQA question: How does the "shortcut" mechanism work?
Also, to help you better understand how the shortcut works today I asked for a shortcut to Thais and arrived at Thais. I went back to Charles and asked for a shortcut to Thais again and got shipwrecked to Arctic Island. However, there was a possibility I could've arrived at the other 3 islands but I got lucky I arrived at Arctic Island. If this was my first time doing the shortcut, I would end up near Meluna because that is guaranteed. After that, it can be any out of the 4 islands, you can even go to the island near Meluna again as well. I will be able to try again in 20 hours!