What are the chances you'll get to a rare island via shortcut from Port Hope?

Question

There are already 4 if not 5 islands you can reach via shortcut. What are the chances you'll get on one?

Answer 1

I don`t know the exact % but i think it`s under 10%.

I think that because it`s usually easier to arrive the Ghost Ship from Venore to Darashia than to arrive on one of these islands from Port Hope. Considering it and that the chance of arrive on the Ghost Ship is 10%, I suppose that the chances of reaching any of these islands are below this value.  

Comments

Your answer is based on conjecture. You admit that you don't know what the exact chance is. The author of the question probably did not expect such an answer. I recommend doing a certain number of trials on several characters and checking the exact chance.