This seems to be a hard one to pin down. Ive seen people mention everything from 5-20% chance of making a but the person claiming a 20% chance of making it, well their math doesn't seem to add up. So I think a good rule of thumb is 5-10% chance of making the Golden fir cone by combining a Cup of molten gold
(received from the by asking him to melt a Gold Ingot) with a fir cone
or Fir tree.
Whether its better to make it or buy yourself will depend on the prices on your world.
If the market on your world has golden fir cones for under 50k, then buying the Golden Fir cones is probably the best way to go and if they're around 25k to 30k then definately.
If gold Ingots are very cheap on your world then maybe trying your hand at making them is a better way to go.
Either way there is a 25-33% chance your Golden Fir cone will fail against the enraged White Deer
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