Are Christmas presents from Santa absolutely random?

Question

It is said that good behaviour during whole year may be rewarded by nice presents from Santa. Does it work in Tibia? Or that's just absolutely random what we gonna get in present box? I haven't got a skull through last 12 months, hope that Red Guy will notice this thing :)

Answer 1

What is good behavior, that's a topic for a broad discussion as it's an anthropological question.

With that being said, I have some points to make.

You mention that you haven't gotten a skull on the last 12 months, but everyone on non-pvp servers haven't either.

I can't tell you with certainty that it is or that it isn't, on it's current version, a random chance.
What I can tell you is, on the old C++ version that leaked and led to the outbreak of open tibia servers and all its variants is that, it was, in fact a random chance as it was literally written on the code.

My conclusion is, I believe it's random, but I also believe in the secrets that Tibia has, I still find Tibia an incredibly misterious game, despite knowing that it's most just 'fake', 'unfinished' and 'misleading' things, I like to believe there's something I don't know or don't understand, like a riddle; So... yeah, it's random BUT is it really random ?

Comments

The discussion of what 'Random' is and what it means is a very hard one.
For starters, we're talking about a computer game, that being said, the rules for what random CAN be are limited by a computer which boils down to a binary operator with no free will.
So, if a computer is binary (it's either 0 or 1, on or off) and has no free will, that means that to tell a computer to pick a random number is, virtually impossible. This is a real thing in computing, no computer can give you a true random number.
Now... what would really be a true random number ?
Random is a concept, we ourselves are not able to generate random 'things'.
So far, in the universe we have only 'stated' that one thing seems to be really random, that is the radioactive decay, and it's only because we have yet to find a proper pattern.
Entropy in the other hand, would explain what randomness is and how it 'works' (if it actually does work).

Nontheless, randomness on a computer program is merely the outcome of an equasion, this equasion has as random 'seed' the 'time' to the millisecond of the request to the computer. Meaning they are extremely unlikely to be the same.
So, in the source code of the leaked tibia version, there's a method in C++ programming called rand(); or srand(seed); where the seed is the current time down to the millisecond. The source code used srand(seed);

So, with no further overthinking, it's random. It's just a function.

I've disregarded the study you provided as it poses a different scenario and those studies do not fall under this category.
The correct approach for this question would merely be a probability distribution.

And, of course, you would need an utterly reliable source of data, which we cannot use Zupakodes statistical data as it's from the wiki and it's very innacurate by definition.

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The first paragraph of the wikipedia mentions it's relation with entropy.
The wikipedia link itself has science related articles, none of which point to the other study you mentioned.

By reading the entropy entry on wikipedia, you'll be able to see how it directly relates to the possibility of the statistical distribution of the data.

The data you're taking into account, those 1002 reports are innacurate.
You should not take those into account, and of course, you'll need a much larger pool to start evaluating what the chances really are.
So no, we cannot detect a clear pattern, as the data cannot be taken into account.
Yes, it was designed against a high value gift, of course.

Perhaps, its how you're approaching the randomness of the gift.

Santa gives 6 prizes, 1, 2,3,4,5,6 gold, each related to the side of a six sided dice.
That means that you have the same chance to get them, all at random.

What if santa gives the the same prizes, but now, the rules are:
if you roll, 1,2 and 3 on the dice you then have to flip a coin and you'll get 1 gold if heads and 2 gold if tails.
if you roll, 4 and 5 on the dice you then have to flip a coin and you'll get 3 gold if heads and 4 gold if tails.
If you roll 6 on the dice the you have to roll another dice, if you roll 6 again, you then flip a coin and you'll get 2 gold if heads and if tails you roll another dice a 20 sided dice, if you get 20 on the dice you get 6 gold, all else, you get 1 gold.

This means you have a very, very different chance of getting the money but still, both are random, the same kind of random.
To be random and to have the same probability chance are two very different things.

And 'I guess your concept is an extremely heterodoxy approach in order to conclude that it is a random event.'
It's not my concept, I have no orthodox or heterodox way of approaching as this is a statistical discussion that can't have my views of the world, none of which I posed, ofc.
I don't have a philosophical idea about the subject nor did I mention any other approach besides the Entropy, which has no philosophical intent or view.

I merely pointed out a few things.
'Random is hard'
'C++ source code used srand(TimeInMillis);'
'Study does not apply'
'Data is not reliable'


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This is a great video somewhat related to the topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMb00lz-IfE
and
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rIy0xY99a0

Answer 2

The present from Santa Claus Npc is completely random.
I can paste you some statistics from santa.
 

Obtaining gifts from Santa Claus, 1002 trials.
 

Item	Amount	Percentage	Tries to get 1
10 Candy Canes + Green Christmas Bundle	221	22.06%	5
10 Candy Canes + Red Christmas Bundle	202	20.16%	5
10 Candy Canes + Blue Christmas Bundle	191	19.06%	6
10 Candy Canes + 10 Snowballs	158	15.77%	7
10 Candy Canes + Piggy Bank	73	7.29%	14
Dwarven Ring + Ring of Healing + Energy Ring	45	4.49%	23
Red Gem	32	3.19%	32
Bullseye Potion + Mastermind Potion + Berserk Potion	18	1.8%	56
Shiny Stone	16	1.6%	63
Violet Gem	13	1.3%	78
Gold Ingot	11	1.1%	92
Amulet of Loss	6	0.6%	167
Dracoyle Statue	4	0.4%	251
Panda Teddy	3	0.3%	334
Stuffed Dragon	3	0.3%	334
Snowman Doll	2	0.2%	501
Santa Doll	2	0.2%	501
Dragon Claw	1	0.1%	1002
Santa Teddy	1	0.1%	1002

Comments

The table does not prove they are completely random. Is there any official confirmation of this answer?

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Well by random I mean there is no thing that affects on the static % of each item, when I say random I say that all people have the same % for each item to get it.  Obviously each item has a % of drop like in a normal monster or boss .

Answer 3

I was wrong about this whole stuff. Sorry about the inconvenience. 

This is a random gifting coded NPC after all. However, you have low chances of getting something decent at all. Common presents are the Christmas Bundles + Candy Canes or Snowballs + Candy Canes. I had an argument before because I looked this bias as a proof that something there isn't random, but technically it still can be considered a random ocurrance, because we can say that you have no control about what will be gifted to your character.

Due to statistics made from Santa NPC gifting data, we can determine what frequency of presents showing up to the population. So always "give a shot"  on Santa!

Comments

I think the problem is that you used the wrong data in the test. You can't use the column 'tries to get one' as the input to the test.

Actually you can't run that test with only the table posted by @Zupakode. You would need the whole sequence that the presents were given. For example: 1st trial: Candy, 2nd trial: Candy, 3rd trial: Red Gem, ... 1000th trial: Candy.

The test is based on the 'runs' that the output is given. If you consider the 'Tries to get one', it simply does not make sense.

Suppose there are two presents only: present 1 and present 2. If you test 20 times and receive the presents in this order: 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, ...,  then the Runs test will say that this is not random, because there is a clear pattern there.

If you receive in this order: 2,2,2,1,1,2,1,2,2,1,1,1,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 the test will say it could be random, because it couldn't detect any order in it. In fact I used a virtual random coin flipper to generate this sequence.

If you simply add the 'tries to get one' as input, it is simply wrong.

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In your answer you are basically showing that the sequence: 5 5 6 7 14 23 32 56 63 78 92 167 251 334 334 501 501 1002 1002 (in this order) is not random. Of course it isn't, the sequence is sorted. There is a clear pattern in it.
If you could get, somehow, the presents received in the order that they were received, then you could try this test to check if it is random or not.

You don't need to do that because it is random.

I read some of your comments and you seem to fail to understand that random events can have outcomes with different probabilities (like slot machines, lottery, santa present.. ).

Imagine you are santa and you use a random dice to decide the present you will give to someone. Suppose you decide to gift a pair of golden boots if the dice shows a 6 and a pair of boots of haste if it shows any other number. It should be clear that the dice is completely random and so is the gift. You have a 1 in 6 chance to get a golden boots, and a 5/6 chance to get a boots of haste. That does not mean that it is not random, just because the presents will be unevenly distributed. The output is completely random, because the output is based solely on the dice, that is random.