Which is the best place to play the Lucky Dragon minigame if I want to win a wind-up key?

Question

The Lucky Dragon minigame takes place in Thais, Carlin and Edron. All three cities have different placements for the best prize, the wind-up key. What's the best option if I want to maximise my chances to win a key?

Answer 1

The chances in each city are the same- 4% of getting  the Wind- Up key. You cannot manipulate Dragon by moving around, exeta etc- it is very random.

In Thais- the Dragon must be on purple tile, where in Thais and Carlin this should be Yellow Tile (to recognise it- it will be only one tile of the same colour).

I saw many players are not entering the game if someone won the Key- for the believe that you cannot get 2 in a row.

Comments

I witnessed 2 in a row occurring if Im not mistaken there's no pattern

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I'm sorry but you are wrong. You cannot calculate the chances of ending in each step by simply dividing 100 by the amount of tiles. The Lucky Dragon always starts at the center and only walks north, south, west and east, so this means that there are difference chances of ending on each tile. What makes this calculation even more complicated is that the number of steps seems to vary and isn't always the same. Here are the chances of ending on each tile considering 9 steps and a 33% chance of a 10th step, calculated by Nohus from TibiaLive: https://imgur.com/bXzibrg

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I got 2 keys in the same server and same lucky dragon (different chars) so far the best place to get the key is carlin :D

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Hi Lee Kun, Was it done using probability formula?  If it is- then yeah this will work only for Wind-up key as other prizes have more tiles which you will have add up around. And Im guessing this is "rounded" since once add up it goes to 100.6 %. I am also checking if there is an instance when the Dragon jumps 2 fields or across in his last "spasm" ( or at least sometimes my Dragon got spasm and jumps completely different direction where he is heading too)- as was not really observing it that much.  Well, I cannot really comment about this as I have not re-brushed my calculating probability tbh. so I trust this is correct. Yesterday I was trying to block dragon with parcel and I noticed he was moving Orange all over the board. He was moving the item though.
@ Raven- I also opted Carlin & Edron as you do not have to "fight" for your turn to get inside and also, got few keys already+ no wasted time:)

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I'm not sure how he got the numbers tbh. I just know he calculated the odds after each step. And yes, it's rounded so you don't get exactly 100% and to get the chances of other items you have to sum how many tiles you have of each one.