What is the chance that after using Stuffed Dragon it will hurt us for 1 HP?

Question

Some time ago I decided to try to answer the following question:

What is recorded in the death log if a Stuffed Dragon kills you? - TibiaQA

Most of the fansites state that it is extremely rare that Stuffed Dragon can hit us for 1HP when we use it. At the same time, it should say "You will burn". I decided to check it out and test this extreme rare effect. Due to the fact that Stuffed Dragon has a cooldown I bought 27 of them. I set the use of the item to hotkey. This allowed me to use the item a very large number of times per minute.

So far I used Stuffed Dragon about 35,000 times during my research. And guess what happened. Nothing! Not once did Stuffed Dragon hit me for 1HP and say "You Will Burn". Let me add that I tried to trigger this effect on two different characters.

I'd like to know what the term "Extremely rare" means. What is the chance that Stuffed Dragon will hit us for 1HP? Or is it impossible to trigger?

Additional question:

Is there a screenshot on the web confirming the "You will burn" sound by Stuffed Dragon?

Sources:

What is recorded in the death log if a Stuffed Dragon kills you? - TibiaQA

Przedmioty: Stuffed Dragon - Tibia ~ Tibiopedia.pl

Stuffed Dragon | TibiaWiki | Fandom

Stuffed Dragon - Tibia Wiki

Comments

I was curious about this at one point as well, but however I was trying it with a character with already 1HP.
I wanted to see what the death would be on tibia.com. However I tried for a while but when nothing happened I got bored and gave up, good luck though!

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Done it thousands times- still no luck.

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Amazing investigations, thank you for you hard work in solving this riddle!

Answer 1

So I went ahead and tried my luck, here is my research based on my experience...

When you "use" a Stuffed Dragon you have the chance to get various messages with different occurences:

As we know, the Extremely Rare Message "You... will.... burn!!"  will also "burn" you and you'll recieve fire damage for 1 hitpoint... but, what is the chance of this happening?

Stuffed Dragon 2,000 trials:

In my case, I got the "You...will...burn!!" message in the attemp # 1889 out of 2000 trials.

For the additional question whether is there any screenshot on the web confirming the "You...will...burn!!" sound, you can find the uncropped version here: TibiaGallery Stuffed Dragon.

Additional notes:

- I used only 1 Stuffed dragon during the whole research

- The Stuffed Dragon was not in my backpack, it was on the floor, therefore all the clicks were done "manually", no hotkey used

- I was wearing Fabulous Legs and Falcon Escutcheon (yeah, silly me) so I was not hurt for the 1 hp since the damage is fire based

- I wasn't on PZ during my research. I was on Darashia Desert

- I do not have the "I need hug" Achievement

Comments

Wow! Great research and a great answer. Congratulations on solving this issue. I'll be honest, I was beginning to doubt that anyone would answer my question. However, it makes me wonder why after a minimum of 60000 attempts on my part this effect did not appear? Either I was extremely unlucky or some specific conditions must be met. Maybe the dragon has to be on the ground when you use it? Anyway, congratulations to you and I keep my fingers crossed for you in the current contest on TibiaQA. Please write how many attempts you have made to use the dragon in total?

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Big congratulations for the screenshot of this effect, it's something I've never seen. I also like how you presented the results in a table. But the statement:
"This means that, statistically, you need to "use" around 2,000 times your Stuffed Dragon to get hurt for 1hp" is a bit of an exaggeration though. Clearly, the luck factor is at play here and it would be helpful if you could recreate the effect at least once more, preferably a total of 5 times.

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I would agree with Williams. The number of trials is very important here to determine the actual chance of producing this effect. @Smucker that's why I ask what was the number of attempts during reseach.

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Thanks a lot for the comments and Feedback! I changed the wording a little bit just to make sure there is no confusion or missleading information, at least until further validation as mentioned. Talking only about my own experience/luck. @Mogh I did 2,000 attemps in total

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In my opinion, 2000 trials is not enough to determine chance in this case unfortunately. Maybe you can run even more trials to see if there is indeed a chance as once in 2000 will be confirmed? I know it is difficult because of the time consuming task but it is probably worth it :)

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I will try to recreate! To have a bigger sample and hopefully another good proof. Maybe I was extremely lucky but I don't consider my self lucky... this is comming from a guy with 0 Oberon drops and 0 Lord Retro drops killing daily haha

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I done it more than 2k times several times and never received this message neither damage. But yeah- I used more than one Stuffed Dragon on hotkey and was in my bp. Congrats on resolving !:)