Is it possible that Ferumbras doesn't spawn at the time he's supposed to?

Question

I am playing in garnera, and ferumbras was supposed to have spawned in the last days, but it hasnt. Even in tibiabosses website it says that it has now 'Low chance' and 'last seen: 180 days ago'.

So may it not spawn at all cause of the multiple server saves that have happened these weeks? or will just take longer for it to spawn?

Answer 1

predictions on tibiabosses page are just that, they can mostlikely spawn, is not 100% accurate, it will spawn later with low chance the same can happend with omrafir and other bosses just because tibiabosses shows them as high chance to spawn that doesnt mean they will spawn during that time, its just they are more likely to spawn

Comments

Im more worried about the several servers saves happening of many hours. May it could had the 'spawn time' during those offline hours of the world?

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its possible that it has skiped since on menera where i play the day of the ss Gaz'haragoth spawned, then the ss of bans happend and the gaz didnt apear again so its possible to be skip but i woudnt bet on it

Answer 2

According to GuildStats' data and my own analysis, you are correct. Ferumbras on Garnera was supposed to spawn between July 06 and July 20, but it didn't. As you said, it's probably because Ferumbras was set to spawn on a day in which a second Server Save happened before Ferumbras spawned, making the server believe it spawned already. 

These extra server saves have all sorts effects. It's important to note that a second server save is different from a reset, as when there is a reset the data is restored to the last point, while on a Server Save everything that happened is saved and kept. These extra server saves change the Dream Scar boss a second time, they skip World Change stages (such as deepling), they move Rashid (if it's past midnight CET/CEST) and they can also prevent triggered bosses to spawn. 

For all we know about the raid algorithm, bosses are set to spawn when a Server Save happens. It's probably that at this moment the time it will spawn is also selected. Being triggered to spawn seems to be enough to register that boss as spawned and reset its cooldown. This for example prevents a boss for respawning if it isn't killed. As much as I can't prove it, I remember seen this happen before. You can try to email Support about it, but if I recall correctly last time they weren't willing to do any manual changes to help.

Answer 3

Well, Ferumbras has a delay of 180 days to appear again, but it doesn't mean that he will appear right after this period of days.

About multiple server saves I believe that's not a problem, since Ferumbras didn't appear during these days, I think the data is  generated only if Ferumbras truly shows himself at Tibialands. So he is able to appear anytime.